DENVER (CBS4)– Modeling COVID-19 cases shows strong potential for sharp decline, especially in places with higher vaccination rates. States like Colorado, which outperform many others, have a greater chance of falling.
The outlook comes from a study published this week that was compiled from March case data and a look at other factors, including vaccination rates.
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“They brought together six different modeling teams and got six different insights into the next few months. All six different models agreed that we were going to peak,” said Dr. David Beckham, Infectious Disease Specialist at UCHealth Hospital.
We are at this summit now. Cases in Colorado usually run in a range of 1,300 to 1,500 per day.
“The number of cases will decrease dramatically in the next few months. From July onwards, it starts to plateau again at a relatively low level. “
How much the differences vary, and the modeling in the Centers for Disease Control report suggests a sharp drop in cases in July, if vaccination rates remain high, and includes adherence to “non-pharmaceutical interventions” that can also be referred to as preventive measures such as masking. wear.
“If we have low vaccination rates and are inadequately following some of these interventions, the rate of decline is much slower,” said Dr. Beckham.
The Colorado area continues to show signs of reopening.
“It feels like you’re alive again. When you’re alive, you can give something back to other people, ”said restaurateur Dana Rodriguez, co-owner of Work & Class and Super Mega Bien on the 25th and Larimer.
The two restaurants reopened this week after being closed for months. Rodriguez, a James Beard Award nominee, joined them to take a break from the pressures to get out of the pandemic. Other restaurant operators in the city saw their move as a symbol of the pain and loss in business.
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“Last year we didn’t have enough resources. We don’t know what to do, it was so new. Then I start, we get small, we get smaller. We stop, we die. That’s how I see life. You have to keep moving and creating and doing something else, ”said Rodriguez.
Not only will it reopen, but it will also begin building a third restaurant called Cantina Loca in Zuni and 29. The cost of reopening is high, but it has a big smile on it.
“Me and my partner, that’s all that is important to us at the moment, that we have our doors open. And rest, everything will be fine. “
Colorado’s higher vaccination rate than some states will likely put it in a better position as COVID cases will decline. The Biden government is now hoping for a 70% vaccination rate across the country to achieve herd immunity.
“We can’t get that 70% figure,” said Beckham. “We’re going to learn what this is going to look like pretty quickly in areas with relatively little vaccine coverage … We could very well have hot spots in Colorado and across the country. They know the virus won’t go away completely in summer. “
Beckham said the case numbers are difficult to predict, but “Hopefully we’ll have 30 to 40 cases across the state by the summer.”
There will continue to be cases from other areas, such as states with low vaccination rates.
“Even if we run out of cases, we will continue to receive launches from other areas, both inside and outside the US,” added Beckham.
But when Colorado seems to turn a corner, hope comes back. And one of the most famous chefs is looking ahead and ready to spend long hours welcoming people who have helped her get through the worst of times.
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“We need that as humans and I think the social part is seeing the people who help keep your business going. It’s a feeling you can’t express, ”said Rodriguez.